Research Shows that Shorter Movie Release Windows Boost Revenue, Not Piracy

Movie studios are increasingly experimenting with shorter release windows or even simultaneous theatrical and digital premieres. But how does this affect overall revenues? According to new research into shortened release windows in Korea, movie studios profit from this strategy. While pirated copies also become available quicker, the overall piracy figures don’t change.

From: TF, for the latest news on copyright battles, piracy and more.

korsubAfter a film premieres at the box office, movie fans typically have to wait a few months before they can see it online, depending on the local release strategy.

This delay tactic, known as a release window, helps movie theaters to maximize their revenues. However, for many pirates, this is also a reason to turn to unauthorized sites and services.

Shrinking Release Windows

In recent years these release windows have slowly decreased and this process was accelerated in the COVID pandemic. Increasingly, traditional delays have come down, and in some cases, release windows have disappeared completely. Warner Bros, for example, now releases movies on HBO Max and in theaters simultaneously.

This shift is nothing short of a historic breakthrough. While more choice is good for consumers, these changes also breed uncertainty. Some movie industry insiders and theater owners, for example, fear that their income will be negatively impacted. At the same time, there are concerns that piracy will spike.

These and other questions are addressed in new research conducted by Carnegie Mellon’s Initiative for Digital Entertainment Analytics (IDEA). The research group, which received millions of dollars in gifts from the Motion Picture Association, just analyzed how early releases affect piracy and box office revenue.

Impact on Box Office and Piracy

The results are published in a non-peer-reviewed paper titled The Impact of Early Digital Movie Releases on Box Office Revenue: Evidence from the Korean Market.

As the title suggests, the research focuses on the Korean movie market which is the fourth-largest in the world, following the US, China, and Japan. In recent years movie studios have experimented with release windows in korea, which are significantly shorter than in other countries, including the US.

Instead of waiting three months, Korean “Super Premium” digital releases typically come out a month after the theatrical release. This means that movies are available while they are still playing in theaters.

The researchers use this unique situation to compare various movie revenue streams, as well as piracy figures, with the United States. To get the full picture, they also add in the effect of early versus regular digital releases in Korea itself.

Box Office Revenue is Unaffected

Following a complex statistical analysis, the researchers can estimate the effect of the early “Super Premium” releases on Korean box office revenue. They find a small negative effect of less than 1%, which isn’t statistically significant.

“We find a statistically and economically insignificant decline in theatrical revenue due to the early SP release, equivalent to an approximate 0.8% drop in total theatrical revenue in Korea during the first eight weeks of the theatrical run,” the researchers conclude.

This is an important finding as it shows that releasing a digital copy of movie months in advance doesn’t hurt theater revenues. This suggests that both consumption channels are complementary, which is great news for movie studios.

More Revenue for Movie Studios

And indeed, the researchers find that “Super Premium” video on demand (SPVOD) releases boost studio revenue by roughly 12% during the first weeks.

“Using digital movie sales data in Korea and industry estimates of studio margins on theatrical and SPVOD revenue, we estimate that SPVOD releases increase the marginal revenue received by studios in the first eight weeks of a movie’s Korean release by approximately 12%.”

While this all sounds positive, it’s undeniable that these early releases also impact piracy. This is confirmed by the data which show that the “pirate” release windows are also decreasing. Not just in Korea, but globally too.

No Boost in Piracy Figures

According to the researchers, however, this isn’t much of a problem. People will download pirated copies earlier, but the data don’t show that the piracy volume in Korea or the US increases for these movie titles. Pirates just get to download a film sooner.

“Finally, while the data from torrent piracy suggest that early SPVOD releases lead to earlier global availability of high-quality piracy sources, we see no evidence that these early sources increase piracy demand for movies released in SPVOD windows in either the Korean or US markets.”

All in all, the findings show that the movie industry is on the right track by shortening release windows. It’s not just good for consumers but also increases studios’ income too.

More Research Needed

That said, it’s far too early to generalize. This study looked at a very specific set of movies for which the “Super Premium” release came out after 28 days. It could very well be that longer, shorter, or no delays will have a different impact.

This shortcoming is recognized by the researchers who also stress that more research into the effects on piracy is needed. Especially in cases where a movie is released in one country before it’s available somewhere else.

But with more and more release experiments taking place, we expect that follow-up studies are already underway.

From: TF, for the latest news on copyright battles, piracy and more.

Daily Deals (1-27-2021)

The Asus ZenBook Duo 14 is a dual-screen laptop with a 14 inch full HD primary display and a secondary 12.6 inch “ScreenPad Plus” above the keyboard. First unveiled a little over a year ago, the notebook has a starting list price of $1300,…

The Asus ZenBook Duo 14 is a dual-screen laptop with a 14 inch full HD primary display and a secondary 12.6 inch “ScreenPad Plus” above the keyboard. First unveiled a little over a year ago, the notebook has a starting list price of $1300, but right now Newegg is selling an entry-level model for $950. […]

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Unstable helium adds a limit on the ongoing saga of the proton’s size

Putting a muon in orbit around a helium nucleus gives us measurements that make sense.

A huge pavement campus surrounded by green fields.

Enlarge / The small particle accelerator in Switzerland where, surrounded by farms, the work took place. (credit: Paul Scherrer Institut)

Physicists, who dedicate their lives to studying the topic, don't actually seem to like physics very much, since they're always hoping it's broken. But we'll have to forgive them; finding out that a bit of theory can't possibly explain experimental results is a sign that we probably need a new theory, which is something that would excite any physicist.

In recent years, one of the things that's looked the most broken is a seemingly simple measurement: the charge radius of the proton, which is a measure of its physical size. Measurements made with hydrogen atoms, which have a single electron orbiting a proton, gave us one answer. Measurements where the electron was replaced by a heavier particle called a muon gave us a different answer‐and the two results were incompatible. Lots of effort has gone into eliminating this discrepancy, and it's gotten smaller—but it hasn't gone away.

That's gotten theorists salivating. The Standard Model has no space for these kind of differences between electrons and muons, so could this be a sign that the Standard Model is wrong? The team behind some of the earlier measurements is now back with a new one, this one tracking the behavior a muon orbiting a helium nucleus. The results are consistent with other measurements of helium's charge radius, suggesting there's nothing funny about the muon. So the Standard Model can breathe a sign of relief.

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“Warp speed,” “Prime Directive” predate Star Trek, per new reference tool

Historical Dictionary of Science Fiction is a new, and free, online reference tool.

Screenshot from a Star Trek film.

Enlarge / The term "warp drive" actually predates its first use in the long-running Star Trek franchise by 14 years. (credit: Paramount Pictures)

There's no denying the profound influence that the Star Trek franchise has had on our shared popular culture. But it turns out that some of the best-known terms associated with the series—transporter, warp speed, and the famous Prime Directive—actually predate Star Trek: The Original Series by a decade or more. According to Jesse Sheidlower, a lexicographer and editor of the newly launched online Historical Dictionary of Science Fiction (HDSF), the first mention of those terms appeared in 1956, 1952, and 1940, respectively.

The origins of this new online resource date back to 2001, when Sheidlower was working for the venerable Oxford English Dictionary (OED). "OED has always been a crowdsourced entity," Sheidlower told Ars. "In fact, it was probably the first crowdsourced thing." Back in the late 19th century, OED editors typically placed notices in newspapers and magazines asking people to read various materials and contribute to their coverage of the English language.

While at OED, Sheidlower noted that science fiction was an area that was not very well served by scholarship, partly because science fiction hasn't had much serious literary cache historically. That meant that the most significant (and rare) pulp magazines weren't available in the usual archives, like the Library of Congress or the New York Public Library. So he set up a Science Fiction Citations Project (SFCP) and called on the science fiction community (fans and writers alike) to submit examples of the specialized terminology they found, all curated by moderators.

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Microsoft earnings: Xbox hardware sales shot up 86% with Series X/S

As usual, it was Microsoft’s cloud business that drove revenue to new highs.

The Xbox Series X, which launched in November.

Enlarge / The Xbox Series X, which launched in November. (credit: Sam Machkovech)

Microsoft delivered its earnings report for Q2 2021 yesterday, and the company has continued its sprint of very strong quarters, again driven primarily by Azure and the cloud. But that same old story isn't the only one here: the report also tells us a thing or two about the new Xbox's performance, as well as Windows and Office.

Overall, Microsoft beat analyst expectations. The company's top-level revenue grew 17 percent year over year, reaching $43.08 billion. Analysts had expected $40.18 billion. $14.6 billion of that was from the business segment Microsoft calls "Intelligent Cloud," which most notably includes Azure but also some other professional services like GitHub.

Cloud wasn't the only positive story, though. Personal Computing including Windows, Xbox, and Surface grew 15 percent compared to the previous year to just over $15 billion. That included an 86 percent increase in Xbox hardware sales, as well as a 40 percent increase in Xbox content and surfaces—the former of those includes the launch of the Xbox Series X/S consoles in November, and the latter includes Game Pass, which Microsoft has been pushing hard as a core value proposition for the Xbox game platform.

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Samsung’s reportedly ready to supply foldable displays to rival companies

Samsung’s foldable panel exclusivity is ending, with Chinese phones due in 2H 2021.

Promotional image of foldable smartphone.

Enlarge / The Galaxy Z Flip (left) and Galaxy Z Fold 2 (right). Samsung will be selling both of these display styles to competitors now. (credit: Samsung)

A report from ETNews claims that Samsung Display is ready to expand its foldable-display business and start selling to companies other than Samsung Electronics' phone division. Flexible panels were previously exclusive to Samsung's phone division, but the report says Samsung Display plans to sell 1 million panels this year in the open market. ETNews quotes a source saying "multiple Chinese smartphones markets" are working with Samsung and plan to ship devices in the second half of 2021.

A million panels isn't a huge supply compared to the ~350 million smartphones sold annually, but that is about the size of the foldable market in these early days. Canalys' last numbers said 1.74 million foldables were sold from September 2019 to June 2020, which represents the first generation of foldables, before the launch of the Galaxy Z Fold 2. Samsung hopes to see that number grow a lot in 2021, with ETNews reporting Samsung Display will supply 10 million foldable displays to the phone division.

It doesn't sound like the third parties buying from Samsung will have a lot of wiggle room in terms of form factor. According to the report, Samsung is supplying two types of displays: one that folds across the horizontal axis like the Galaxy Z Flip, and one that folds across the vertical axis like the Galaxy Z Fold. The industry isn't quite sure what a flexible display smartphone should look like, and at trade shows, various companies have pitched all sorts of wild form factors. There are concepts for rollable display smartphones, outward-folding displays like the Huawei Mate X, and tri-folding smartphones that fold up like a wallet or a brochure. It doesn't sound like Samsung will be humoring any of those form factors just yet.

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GPD Win 3 docking station hands-on (and thumbs-on with joystick mouse mode)

The GPD Win 3 is a handheld computer that’s designed first and foremost for gaming. As I covered in my review of a pre-release GPD Win 3 prototype, it’s a full-fledged Windows PC with hardware that’s powerful enough for general purpo…

The GPD Win 3 is a handheld computer that’s designed first and foremost for gaming. As I covered in my review of a pre-release GPD Win 3 prototype, it’s a full-fledged Windows PC with hardware that’s powerful enough for general purpose computing, but the design makes it awkward to use for anything but gaming… unless […]

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The complete moron’s guide to GameStop’s stock roller coaster

How does this epic rally end? And can it be repeated?

The GameStop logo has been superimposed on the image of a bubble.

Enlarge / Pop goes the bubble... (credit: Aurich Lawson / Getty Images)

Last week, an epic short squeeze had driven GameStop stock up to $40 a share, a roughly 1,500 percent increase from its low point nine months ago. Little did anyone know at the time that this would only be the beginning of the story.

As I write this, GameStop's stock price is hovering around $350, up another 775 percent or so since I wrote about this situation eight days ago. By the time you read this, that number may be horribly outdated, as the stock continues to bounce up and down with extreme volatility hour by hour (it dipped down as low as $61 and peaked as high as $159 on Friday).

The current stock price now gives the company a market cap of about $26 billion.

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AT&T eats a $15.5 billion impairment charge as DirecTV debacle continues

AT&T lost 617,000 Premium TV customers in Q4 and 3 million in the calendar year.

A man with an umbrella walking past a building with an AT&T logo.

Enlarge / A man walks with an umbrella outside of AT&T corporate headquarters on March 13, 2020, in Dallas, Texas. (credit: Getty Images | Ronald Martinez)

AT&T lost 617,000 customers from DirecTV and its other TV businesses in the final quarter of 2020, capping a year in which it lost nearly 3 million customers in the category, AT&T reported today.

AT&T today also informed the Securities and Exchange Commission that it has taken "noncash impairment charges of $15.5 billion" related to its ongoing DirecTV debacle. AT&T said the $15.5 billion charges reflect "changes in our management strategy and our evaluation of the domestic video business... including our decision to operate our video business separately from our broadband and legacy telephony operations." This operational decision "required us to identify a separate Video reporting unit and to assess both the recoverability of its long-lived assets and any assigned goodwill for impairment," AT&T said.

AT&T said it also logged "charges of approximately $780 million from the impairment of production and other content inventory at WarnerMedia, with $520 million resulting from the continued shutdown of theaters during the pandemic and the hybrid distribution model for our 2021 film slate."

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M5Paper is a 4.7 inch WiFi-enabled E Ink touchscreen display for $70

The M5Paper is a small, programmable E Ink display that sells for around $70. It supports touchscreen input, WiFi and Bluetooth and has a battery, which means you could use the display to make your own eBook reader, smart home remote, or internet-conn…

The M5Paper is a small, programmable E Ink display that sells for around $70. It supports touchscreen input, WiFi and Bluetooth and has a battery, which means you could use the display to make your own eBook reader, smart home remote, or internet-connected news ticker, among other things. While the M5Paper is out of stock at […]

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